- The Democrat-Republican Political Party System, 1900 - Late 1930s: Overview
- The Main Organizing Dimension was Economics -- The Degree of Government Intervention in the
Economy
- The Effect of the Depression was to Shift the Entire Distribution of Voters to the Left
on the Existing Dimension. Greater Control over the Economy and Direct Cash Payments to
Individuals Became Accepted Policy.
- The Democrats Became Overwhelmingly Dominate -- The Most Lopsided Two-Party System in
American History. Many Scholars Referred to it as a One-and-a-Half Party System.
- The Main Organizing Dimension was Economics -- The Degree of Government Intervention in the
Economy
- The Democrat-Republican Political Party System, Late 1930s - Mid-Late 1980s: Overview
- In 1937-38 Voting on the Fair Labor Standards Act (Minimum Wages) Opened a serious
Split between Northern and Southern Democrats. Southerners did not want Southern Agriculture
to be constrained by the minimum wage because many of the Laborers were Black.
- During the Second World War Voting on whether or not to Use Federal Law as Opposed to
State Law to Determine Voter Eligibility in the Armed Forces Further Exacerbated the Split
Between Northern and Southern Democrats. Southern Democrats did not want Blacks serving in
the Armed Forces to be able to vote in Southern elections.
- This conflict culminated in the Passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the 1965 Voting Rights
Act, and the 1967 Open Housing Act. Collectively, these laws ended legal segregation.
- The Passage of the Civil Rights Laws triggered a slow Realignment of the White South into the
Republican Party. Aided by President Richard Nixon's "Southern Strategy", the Southern states
began voting for Republican Presidential candidates. Eventually Southern States began electing
Republican Senators, then Republican Representatives, and finally state and local officials
switched to the Republican Party.
Regional Differences in Presidential Vote 1948 - 2004
House: 1879 - 2005 Percent Southern Seats Held by Republicans
Senate: 1879 - 2005 Percent Southern Seats Held by Republicans
House: 1879 - 2005 Percent Northern and Southern Seats Held by Republicans
Senate: 1879 - 2005 Percent Northern and Southern Seats Held by Republicans
Republican Percentage of Seats in State Legislatures 1948 - 2004
- By the 1990s Civil Rights related issues became indistinguishable from economic issues
in terms of the voting coalitions in Congress.
- In 1937-38 Voting on the Fair Labor Standards Act (Minimum Wages) Opened a serious
Split between Northern and Southern Democrats. Southerners did not want Southern Agriculture
to be constrained by the minimum wage because many of the Laborers were Black.
- Congressional Elections: 1898 - 2004
HOUSE SENATE Democrat Republican Other Democrat Republican Other 1898 163 185 9 26 53 11 1900 153 198 5 29 56 3 1902 178 207 32 58 1904 136 250 32 58 1906 164 222 29 61 1908 172 219 32 59 1910 228 162 1 42 49 1912 290 127 18 51 44 1 1914 231 193 8 56 39 1 1916 210 216 9 53 42 1 1918 191 237 7 47 48 1 1920 132 300 1 37 59 1922 207 225 3 43 51 2 1924 183 247 5 40 54 1 1926 195 237 3 47 48 1 1928 167 267 1 39 56 1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1930 220 214 1 47 48 1 1932 313 117 5 59 36 1 1934 322 103 10 69 25 2 1936 333 89 13 75 17 4 1938 262 169 4 69 23 4 1940 267 162 6 66 28 2 1942 222 209 4 57 38 1 1944 243 190 2 57 38 1 1946 188 246 1 45 51 1948 263 171 1 54 42 1950 234 199 2 48 47 1952 213 221 1 47 48 1 1954 232 203 48 47 1 1956 234 201 49 47 1958 283 154 64 34 1960 263 174 64 36 1962 258 176 1 67 33 1964 295 140 68 32 1966 248 187 64 36 1968 243 192 58 42 1970 255 180 55 45 1972 243 192 57 43 1974 291 144 61 38 1976 292 143 62 38 1978 277 158 59 41 1980 243 192 47 53 1982 269 166 46 54 1984 253 182 47 53 1986 258 177 55 45 1988 259 174 55 45 1990 267 167 1 56 44 1992 258 176 1 57 43 1994 204 230 1 47 53 1996 207 227 1 45 55 1998 211 223 1 45 55 2000 212 221 2 50 50 2002 205 229 1 48 51 1 2004 201 232 1 44 55 1 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Presidential Elections: 1900 - 2004
Democrat Republican Other ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1900 Bryan 155 6,357,698 45.5 McKinley 292 7,219,193 51.7 1904 Parker 140 5,083,501 37.6 Roosevelt 336 7,625,599 56.4 1908 Bryan 162 6,406,874 43.0 Taft 321 7,676,598 51.6 1912 Wilson 435 6,294,326 41.8 Taft 8 3,486,343 23.2 Roosevelt 88 4,120,207 27.4 1916 Wilson 277 9,126,063 49.2 Hughes 254 8,547,039 46.1 1920 Cox 127 9,134,074 34.2 Harding 404 16,151,916 60.3 1924 Davis 136 8,386,532 28.8 Coolidge 382 15,724,310 54.0 La Follette 13 4,827,184 16.6 1928 Smith 87 15,004,336 40.8 Hoover 444 21,432,823 58.2 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1932 Roosevelt 472 22,818,740 57.4 Hoover 59 15,760,425 39.6 1936 Roosevelt 523 27,750,866 60.8 Landon 8 16,679,683 36.5 1940 Roosevelt 449 27,343,218 54.7 Willkie 82 22,334,940 44.8 1944 Roosevelt 432 25,612,610 53.4 Dewey 99 22,021,053 45.9 1948 Truman 303 24,105,810 49.5 Dewey 189 21,970,064 45.1 Thurmond 39 1,169,114 2.4 1952 Stevenson 89 27,314,992 44.4 Eisenhower 442 33,777,945 54.9 1956 Stevenson 73 26,022,752 42.0 Eisenhower 457 35,590,472 57.4 1960 Kennedy 303 34,226,731 49.7 Nixon 219 34,108,157 49.5 1964 Johnson 486 43,129,566 61.1 Goldwater 52 27,178,188 38.5 1968 Humphrey 191 31,275,166 42.7 Nixon 301 31,785,480 43.4 Wallace 46 9,906,473 13.5 1972 McGovern 17 29,170,383 37.5 Nixon 520 47,169,911 60.7 1976 Carter 297 40,830,763 50.1 Ford 240 39,147,793 48.0 1980 Carter 49 35,483,883 41.0 Reagan 489 43,904,153 50.7 Anderson 0 5,720,060 6.6 1984 Mondale 13 37,577,185 40.6 Reagan 525 54,455,075 58.8 1988 Dukakis 111 41,809,074 45.6 Bush,HW 426 48,886,097 53.4 1992 Clinton 370 44,909,326 43.0 Bush,HW 168 39,103,882 37.4 Perot 0 19,741,657 18.9 1996 Clinton 379 47,402,357 49.2 Dole 159 39,198,755 40.7 Perot 0 8,085,402 8.4 2000 Gore 266 50,992,335 48.4 Bush 271 50,455,156 47.9 Nader 0 2,882,738 2.7 2004 Kerry 251 59,026,013 48.3 Bush 286 62,025,554 50.7 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - The Economy and its Effect on Politics After 1920
- The 1920s Boom and the Stock Market Crash of 1929
- General Prosperity 1919 - 1929
- Productivity (Output per Worker) Rose 43%
- Real Wages Rose about 17%
- Prices Remained Stable
- Real Wages Rose about 17%
- Problem: The Fact that Real Wages Did not Rise nearly as Fast
as Productivity Meant that the Distribution of Income and Wealth Became More Unequal
- Productivity (Output per Worker) Rose 43%
- The Distribution of Income and Wealth
- 1922: Top 1% had 12% of Income, 49% of Personal Savings, 32% of Wealth
- 1928: Top 1% had 13.7% of Income, 80% of Personal Savings, 38% of Wealth
- 1929 (Post Crash): Top 1% had 13.6% of Income, 42% of Personal Savings (This dramatic decrease was due in part due to losses from speculation in the Stock Market -- see below)
- 1928: Top 1% had 13.7% of Income, 80% of Personal Savings, 38% of Wealth
- 1929: 42.4% of Families had Incomes Less than $1500
24,000 Families had incomes Greater than $100,000 which was greater than the total income of the 5.8 million poorest families
Wealth Held by Top 1%: 1922-1998
- 1922: Top 1% had 12% of Income, 49% of Personal Savings, 32% of Wealth
- The Road Building Boom
- As late as 1921 No Highway in the United States had a Number.
- Chains on all 4 Wheels and a shovel with a collapsible handle were necessary
equipment for all cars
- Between 1921 and the Depression Government expenditure for Streets and Highways
exceeded the capital outlays for most Private Industries
- These expenditures were a "Hidden" Subsidy for the Automobile Industry and
had the effect of Stimulating the Economy in general
- As late as 1921 No Highway in the United States had a Number.
- The Housing Industry
- Housing Construction boomed between the end of World War I and 1926. After 1926 it
slowly dropped off
- Rapid Population Growth and Pent-up Demand because of WW I produced strong demand.
- The Fact that Real Wages were not Rising as fast as Productivity Suggests that
Demand for Housing was Exhausted by the late 1920s.
- Housing Construction boomed between the end of World War I and 1926. After 1926 it
slowly dropped off
- The Stock Market Crash of October 1929
- The Great Bubble: Suppose You had $100 to invest in the Stock Market in July 1926:
July 1926 $100 July 1927 112 July 1928 148 January 1929 193 September 1929 216 December 1929 147 December 1930 102 July 1932 34 - The Stock Market Panic began on Saturday, 19 October 1929, and lasted to the end of the Month.
Hundreds of Thousands of People were Wiped out in the Great Crash.
- Many People and Corporations had bought stocks
on Margin from Brokers -- usually 10% down and 90% borrowed.
- Brokers in Turn borrowed Money from non-Bank Sources. Many Corporations invested their Surplus
Profits in these Endeavors.
- The Bubble was also Fueled by Investment Trusts. These sold their own debt instruments and
then used the money to buy stock.
- The craze became so Intense that it looked like it could go on forever:
Herbert Hoover (early 1929): "We in America are nearer to the final triumph over poverty than ever before in the history of any land ... We have not reached the goal, but given a chance to go forward with the policies of the last eight years, we shall soon with the help of God be in sight of the day when poverty will be banished from this nation."
John J. Raskob (Chairman of the Democratic Party, Summer 1929): "If a man saves $15 a week, and invests in good common stocks, and allows the dividends and rights to accumulate, at the end of twenty years he will have at least $80,000 and an income from investments of around $400 a month. He will be rich. And because income can do that, I am firm in my belief that anyone not only can be rich, but ought to be rich."
- The Great Bubble: Suppose You had $100 to invest in the Stock Market in July 1926:
- General Prosperity 1919 - 1929
- Summary of Economic Indicators during the Great Depression
Four Distinct Periods:
- 1930 - 1933: Steep Decline
- 1933 - 1937: Steep Recovery
- 1937 - 1938: Recession
- 1938 - 1941: Tooling up for World War II
- 1930 - 1933: Steep Decline
- The 1920s Boom and the Stock Market Crash of 1929
- Unemployment (Yearly): 1929 - 2004
- The Election of 1932
- Congress: 1879 - 2005 Percent Democrat
- Breadth and Depth of the Underlying Grievance – Economic Disaster.
Sudden and Unexpected and the Republicans were blamed for it.
- Capacity to Provoke Resistance – Haves vs. the Have Nots.
- Leadership – Lagged Behind the General Public. The Republicans
were unable to adapt.
- Division of Polar Forces Between the Two Parties – Affected
Mainly the Republicans. They were Reduced to a fraction of their former Support.
- Strength of Existing Party Attachments – Strong, but overwhelmed
by the sheer Magnitude of the Economic Disaster.
Clearly Type 2 -- Realignment in which Neither Party is Replaced.
The System Stays in State A With a Dramatic Shift of the Electorate to the Democratic Party.
- The Fair Labor Standards Act of 1937