POLI 100B CONGRESS
21 February 2006

4. Congressional Elections
   
   
   3. Midterm Loss of Seats for the President's Party
      
      
      
      Bush 2000 47.9%, Republicans 2002 49.6%, Gained 6 Seats House, 2 Seats Senate
      
      
   4. Voter Turnout (Voting Age) 1930 - 2000
      
      
      
      
   5. Voter Turnout (Eligible) 1788 - 2004
      
      
      
      
   6. Trust in Government 1952 - 2004
      
      
      
      
   7. Figure 5.3 (Stewart) - Turnout and Winning Percentage of the Vote - House Elections 1994 and 1996
      
      
      
      
   8. Voters, Candidates, and Issues (Erikson and Wright, Ch. 4 D & O)
      
      
      1. Partisanship and Seats Shares
         
         
         
         
      2. Spending Preferences from NPAT surveys: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
      3. Issue Differences by Political Party from NPAT surveys: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
      4. Constraint -- Issues are bundled together!
         
         
      5. Distribution of Candidate Ideology by Party, 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
      6. The Incumbency Advantage in the House: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
         
      7. Challenger Quality: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
      8. Candidate Ideology by District Presidential Vote: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
      9. Member Ideology and the House Vote: 2002 and 1998
         
         
         
         
         
         
      10. Winning Candidate's Ideology by District Presidential Vote: 2002 and 1998
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
          
      11. Voter's Perceptions of the Ideology of their Representative: 1978 - 2002
          
          
          
          
          
          
   9. Stewart Chapter 5 -- Voter Choices
      
      
      1. Table 5.2 -- Probability of Voting as a Function of House Candidate Evaluations, 1994
         
         
         
         
      2. Table 5.4 -- Party and Ideological Distance as Explanatory Factors in 1994 House Elections
         
         
         
         
      3. Table 5.5 -- Ideological Extremity of Voters in 1994, by Interest in Politics
         
         
         
         
      4. Figure 5.6 -- Richard Fenno's Concept of Nested Constituencies
         
         
         
         
   10. Progressive Ambition
       
       
       1. State Hierarchy: Governor > State Legislator > Local Official
          
          
       2. Federal Hierarchy: President > Senator > Representative
          
          
       3. Prior Careers of the MA Delegation to the House, 91^st Congress (1969 - 1971)
          
          
          
          
       4. Factors That Affect the Calculus of Progressive Ambition
          
          
          
          
       5. Challenger Quality