Course Review as of 14 March 2006
- Constitutional Powers of Congress (Ch. 2 Stewart)
- Historical Origins
- Young Men of the Revolution: The Role of Nationalist Leaders.
- Table 2.2 p. 69 of Stewart.
- The U.S. Constitution
- Summary of Concepts, p. 82-83.
- The Democrat-Republican Political Party System in Congress: 1879 - 2005
A Competitive system until Great Depression. After 1930 Democratic Party was dominate until
1994 (Republicans won 1946 and 1952 elections, won Senate in 1980 elections).
Congress: 1879 - 2005 Percent Democrat
1960s - 1990s -- Republicans become dominate political party in the South (11 States of the Confederacy + KY + OK)
House: 1879 - 2005 Percent Southern Seats
Held by Republicans
Senate: 1879 - 2005 Percent Southern Seats
Held by Republicans
House: 1879 - 2005 Percent Northern and Southern Seats
Held by Republicans
Senate: 1879 - 2005 Percent Northern and Southern Seats
Held by Republicans
- Changes in the Economy Since the Late 19th Century
Real GDP increases from 1.5 Trillion in 1947 to 11.0 Trillion in 2004
U.S. Real GDP 1947 - 2004
Real per capita GDP (the correct measure of economic improvement) increased from about $10,000 per capita in 1947 to about $34,000 in 2001.
U.S. Real Per Capita GDP 1929 - 2004
The business cycle has moderated substantially after WWII - recessions are not as sharp as they were before WWII. The Reagan and Clinton Booms were separated by only one year of slight (about -1%) negative growth.
Percent Change in Real Per Capita GDP From Previous Year 1929 - 2004
Unemployment rose from 3% in 1929 to a peak of 24.9% in 1933 - the Great Depression. It fell to about 14% in 1937 before President Roosevelt tried to balance the budget sending the economy back into recession.
The economy recovered sharply between 1933 and 1937 - it is unclear how much of this was due to President Roosevelt's New Deal economic policies. Unemployment was clearly reduced by the works projects of the New Deal.
The build-up to WWII produced strong economic growth 1938-1941 and by 1941 unemployment was down to 9% (still a very high level compared to the 1920s).
Since the end of WWII overall unemployment has never gone above 10%.
Non-White Unemployment has been consistently higher than White unemployment - a difference of around 5%.
During the Clinton economic boom non-White unemployment dropped faster than White unemployment.
Unemployment (Yearly): 1929 - 2004
Unemployment (Quarterly): 1948 - 2005
Big spikes during both World Wars. Deflation during the Great Depression.
Slow increase in inflation from 1964 to its peak in 1979 - inflation and
high rate of unemployment - stagflation - made President Carter a one term President.
Sharp decline under Reagan and continuing slow decline under Clinton.
Inflation Rate: 1914 - 2005
Since the 1950s there has been a tremendous increase in the labor force participation of women.
Labor Force Participation: 1955 - 2004
The percentage of foreign born fell after immigration was cut off in 1924. After
the Immigration Act of 1965 immigration (legal and illegal) greatly increased so that the foreign born
percentage has now risen to about the level of the 1920s.
Foreign Born: 1800 - 2004
Big increase in Unionization during the 1930s after the Wagner Act of 1935 (NLRA - National Labor Relations Act). NLRA guaranteed the right of employees to organize and bargain collectively. Set up the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) to hold supervised elections among employees when there was a dispute over which union should represent them.
Slow decline since 1960.
Union Membership: 1930 - 2004
Income Inequality - Series mirrors labor union series.
1913 Income Tax Amendment passed.
1916 Estate Tax Passed.
High rates during WWI.
Tax cuts under Harding & Coolidge.
During the early period before the Great Depression, income was mostly from wealth holdings - income from dividends.
High taxes during Great Depression and WWII - 1944 91% top marginal rate.
Reagan Tax cuts.
Increased under President Clinton.
Currently, 80% is Wage and Entrepreneurial Income, only 20% Capital Income (many stocks do not pay dividends!).
Top 1% Income Share: 1913 - 1998
Wealth Held by Top 1%: 1922-1998. Net Worth: the current value of all marketable
assets. Augmented Wealth: Marketable Wealth and Pension Wealth (including
Social Security)
Wealth Held by Top 1%: 1922 - 1998
By the End of WW II the USA was very
egalitarian – only 2.5% of families had an income exceeding $60,000 in
1997 Dollars. By 1973 this was 26% and by 1996 it was 30%. By 1980 the top
Marginal Rates on $135,000, $67,000, $33,000 were 59%, 49%, and 28% respectively.
In 1991 the corresponding rates were 31%, 28%, 28%.
Top Marginal Income Tax Rate: 1913 - 2003
Real Minimum Taxable Estate in 2002$$ (note that the LOWER this is on the axis the HIGHER the taxes) and
the Maximum Estate Tax Rate. This has tracked the top marginal income tax rate.
Estate Tax Rate: 1916 - 2010
The Lorenz Curve and the Gini Index are Measures of Income Inequality across a
defined population.
Lorenz Curve: U.S. 1994
The Gini Index For families by Race - Inequality Has Been Increasing Since the Middle 1960s.
The rates are higher for Blacks and Hispanics - that is, inequality within each group is higher than for Whites.
Trends began before Reagan, accelerated in the 1980s with some leveling off in the 1990s.
Note that during the Clinton boom the gini indexes for all three groups have gotten closer together!
Gini Index: 1947 - 2000
Increasing Returns to Education since the 1970s may be playing a role in
increasing inequality. Computer hardware and software requires more highly
educated people – hence, increasing income returns to education.
High School Graduation Rates: 1910 - 1995
Returns to High School and College Education: 1915 - 1995
If income inequality is increasing, how could it be that home ownership is increasing?
Note the drop during the Great Depression then the Huge Jump from 1940 to 1950 (Housing Tracts, etc.).
Another big jump from 1950 to 1960, then a leveling off.
Flat during the 1970s with a slight decline during the early 1980s.
Takes off during the Clinton boom.
Home Ownership: 1900 - 2001
Possible Explanation - Increasing Inequality occurring during huge increase in
wealth (real per capita GDP has doubled from 1960s to late 1990s). Could it
be the case that the real prices of goods have fallen faster than we realize
and real wages have risen faster than we realize. A good example of this is
the price of light!
Price of Light: 1800 - 1992
- The Spatial Model of Voting and Party Competition (Ch. 1 Stewart; Chs. 1, 2, 3, 4 P&R)
Hotelling's store location problem - assume houses strung out along the street.
Assume the two stores offer identical service, etc.
Assume the people always shop at the closest store (what does "closest" mean here??? A: DISTANCE - i.e., walking distance).
Solution - The point that minimizes the sum of the walking distances of the n residents is the solution -- The Median.
Figure 1.1 (Stewart): Competition for Customers Between Two Shop Owners
Assume the citizens vote for the candidate closest to them.
Assume the candidates can take any policy position (ignore "crossing-over" problem).
Solution - the median voter.
Figure 1.2 (Stewart): Competition for Two Candidates for Votes
Assume the legislators vote for the policy closest to them.
Assume that legislator ideal points are fixed.
Note that if you allow the legislators to offer amendments a policy located at the median committee member's ideal point always wins.
Figure 1.3 (Stewart): Voting in a Committee over Two Minimum Wage Proposals, X and Y
What does "closest" mean? Utility - how much pleasure/satisfaction a voter/legislator gets from a particular policy (concept from Economics).
Utility is a maximum at the voter/legislator's ideal point and then declines as you move away from the ideal point in any direction - This is known as SINGLE-PEAKED utility/preferences.
Quadratic Utility function - Utility = a - b(distance between ideal point and policy)**2.
Figure 1.4 (Stewart): Quadratic Utility Function
Utility and Preferences are interchangeable concepts in most of what we do because we assume that people prefer more utility (closer outcome) to less utility (outcome further away).
Normal Distribution Utility Function - Not much in tails.
Helps explain behavior of extremists.
Figure 2.2 (Poole and Rosenthal) Normal Distribution Utility Function
Examples of Two Dimensional Quadratic Utility Functions.
Figure 1.10 (Stewart): Two Dimensional Quadratic Utility Function
Two Dimensional Quadratic Utility Function (Ordeshook)
A "Contour Map" of a Two Dimensional Utility Function. Looking down on it
like a contour map of a mountain - the curves trace out the same height -
these are known as indifference curves.
Indifference Curves Over Two Issue Dimensions
Figure 1.11 (Stewart): Examples of Indifference Curves
The Two Dimensional Normal Distribution Utility Function.
Bivariate Normal Utility Function
Roll Call Voting on One Basic Dimension -- How issue mappings occur.
Figure 2.3 (Poole and Rosenthal) Voting in One Dimension
Roll Call Voting on Two Basic Dimensions -- How issue mappings occur.
Figure 2.4 (Poole and Rosenthal) Constraint Example in Two Dimensional Space
A Spatial (Geometric) Model of Roll Call Voting:
Each Legislator is represented by an ideal point and has a symmetric, single-peaked
utility function centered at her ideal point over the policy space.
Each Roll Call Vote is represented by Two points
-- One Corresponding to the
Yea Outcome -- Oy and One Corresponding
to the Nay Outcome -- On.
Legislators vote Probabilistically for the closest outcome:
Probability of Yea = P[U(Oy) > U(On)]
Probability of Nay = P[U(Oy) < U(On)]
A Spatial (Geometric) Model of Roll Call Voting
- The Ideological Structure of Congressional Voting (Ch. 1 Stewart; Chs. 1, 2, 3, 4, P&R)
The Basic Space is Two Dimensional - Economic Issues, "Social" Issues.
No coherent underlying philosophy - Democrats less regulation on social issues more regulation on economic issues - Republicans just the opposite.
GUN CONTROL! Pushed by Democrats - it does not "fit" with the usual social issues like Abortion, Gay Rights, etc.
The Basic Space of American Politics
From the end of
Reconstruction until the late 1930s congressional voting was essentially one
dimensional. Beginning in the 1930s an important 2nd dimension
appeared that picked up the division within the Democratic party over Civil
Rights for Blacks. The clear division of the Democrats into Northern and
Southern parties can be seen in the spatial separation of the "S" and "D"
tokens. After the mid-1970s this division gradually disappears and voting is
once again largely one dimensional. A very important feature that the animated gifs
show is that the same forces are at work on both
chambers. The two scalings are completely separate but the voting structures
in the two chambers are exactly the same. The Big Story of the past 40 years -
The realignment of the South into the Republican
Party - it now has peaked.
Animated Gif for the 46th to the
105th Congresses
- The Polarization of the Congressional Parties (Chs. 1, 2, 3, D&O; Ch. 4, P&R)
House Polarization Over History. The first graph shows a smoothed histogram of
the 93rd House versus the 108th House. The parties have
pulled apart and the leadership tends to be from the left/right sides of the
respective party.
The 93rd versus the 108th House
The Party Means show the trends noted above: From the end of
Reconstruction until the late 1930s congressional voting was essentially one
dimensional. Beginning in the 1930s an important 2nd dimension
appeared that picked up the division within the Democratic party over Civil
Rights for Blacks.
House Party Means on the First Dimension 1879 - 2004
House Party Means on the Second Dimension 1879 - 2004
Below are the distances between the two Party Means since the end of Reconstruction.
Polarization fell from World War I through the 1970s and has dramatically risen since.
It is now almost the same level that it was 100 years ago. The trends in the two
chambers are nearly the same.
House and Senate Polarization 1879 - 2004
House and Senate Party Unity Scores 1879 - 2004
"Move the Previous Motion" rule allows a vote to end debate - accidentally left out of Senate Rules in 1806 - Hence Debate could be unlimited!!!! FILIBUSTER.
Only after a "small group of willful men" (Woodrow Wilson's term) filibustered the League of Nations Treaty in 1919 did the Senate adopt the first version of Rule 22.
Rule 22 - 2/3 Present and Voting can end debate - CLOTURE MOTION.
7 March 1975 changed to 3/5 total Senate (60 Votes).
Effects - (Sinclair essay in Congress Reconsidered) - More Unanimous Consent Agreements.
HOLDS - Threats to object to a Unanimous Consent Agreement - Results in much behind-the-scenes negotiation between Senators favoring a particular bill and those Senators who have filed "Holds" on the bill.
NON-GERMANE Amendments - Can offer other pieces of legislation as amendments to a bill on the floor - Majority Leader can make a Motion to Table - Nondebatable - But Majority Leader's party members then HAVE TO VOTE!
Cloture Votes in the Senate: 1919 - 2001
- Morris Fiorina, The Mystery of the Vanishing Marginals, and the (Un)Vanishing Marginals (ch. 7 D&O)
Note that Total Vote Percentages does not translate linearly into House Seats.
Democrats: 1946 - 2004 Seats vs. Votes
Republicans: 1946 - 2004 Seats vs. Votes
Bimodal Distribution in 1972
1972 Mayhew Graph
Unimodal Distribution before the 1960s
1948 Mayhew Graph
1960 Mayhew Graph
The importance of marginal districts -- Presidential Coattails!
Presidential Coattails -- Unimodal Distribution
Presidential Coattails -- Bimodal Distribution
More Recent Graphs -- Some bimodality in 1988, very little in 1992
1988 Mayhew Graph
1992 Mayhew Graph
2000 Gore Vote
The fraction of Marginal Districts declined 1960 - 1984 - during period that
Fiorina wrote about. The fraction then turned up after 1984 but BIG VARIANCE!
Percent Marginal Districts: 1946 - 1998
Incumbency Advantage clearly increased after 1960 - the culprit that Fiorina fingered for the cause of the "Vanishing Marginals"
Sophomore Surge - Increase in vote percentage from first election to second election (technically, the average).
Retirement Slump - Average change of party's percentage in the district from last election of retiring incumbent to percentage garnered by retiring incumbent's party's candidate.
The two measures both change sharply after 1960 (graphs end in 1990!). The Senate
effects are not as dramatic.
House Incumbency Advantage
Senate Incumbency Advantage
The Evidence: Increases in Congressional Staff. Note huge jump after WWII then
leveling off. The big rise was just before Keystone came out in 1977. This can
be Hill staff + District Office Staff. Committee Staff
a. Committee staff story the same as overall staff.
Congressional Staff
Committee Staff
The Evidence: Pages in the Federal Register.
Pages in the Federal Register: 1936-2001
The Change After the 1980s -- Everyone Uses the "Casework Style". National Forces Reassert Themselves.
Local-National Effects Midterm House Elections
Local-National Effects Presidential Year House Elections
Fiorina: The Money Did it!
Campaign Expenditures Congressional Elections
Soft Money Congressional Elections
Summary
Summary of the Keystone Argument
- The Importance of Redistricting
Fiorina rejected redistricting as an explanation of the "Vanishing Marginals"
in his 1977 book but Cox and Katz in Elbridge Gerry's Salamander argue
that redistricting was an important factor. Below is an example of why
redistricting is important.
Hypothetical State to be Redistricted
First Republican Plan
Second Republican Plan
Democratic Plan
- Congressional Elections -- Turnout and Trust
Note that Total Vote Percentages does not translate linearly into House Seats.
Democrats: 1946 - 2004 Seats vs. Votes
Republicans: 1946 - 2004 Seats vs. Votes
Midterm Loss of Seats (Stewart Table 4.3) - Percent of 2-party vote that the
President's party got in the Presidential election year and the next
off-year election - note that it is always positive. Democrats
gained seats in 1998 for the first time since 1934.
Midterm Loss of Seats by the President's Party
Turnout 1930 - 2004 - Always lower in "off-year" elections.
Even during Presidential years, several
percent of the public vote for President but not for the House!! Also
note that turnout peaked 40 years ago! Slight upticks in 1984, 1992,
2000, and 2004 but the general trend was downward until 2000.
Turnout (Voting Age) 1930 - 2000
Turnout (Eligible) 1788 - 2004 - Peaked period through the Civil War - declined
from the 1890s until the 1920s - bumped up briefly after women were
added to the electorate - bumped up again after WWII and peaked in 1960,
and then fell only to rise in 2004.
Turnout 1788 - 2004
Trust in Government 1952 - 2004
Trust in Government: 1952 - 2004
Trust in Government (new Series from ICPSR) - Different Methodology -- 1958 - 2004
Trust in Government
Table 5.3 (Stewart) - Attitudes and Turnout.
The Relationship Between Attitudes Toward
the U.S. and Voter Turnout in the 1994 Congressional Elections
Figure 5.2 (Stewart) - Variation in Turnout Among House
Districts - 1994 (Low) vs. 1996 (High)
Variation in Turnout Among House Districts,
1994 and 1996
Figure 5.3 (Stewart) - Turnout and Winning Percentage of the
Vote - House Elections 1994 and 1996
Turnout and Winning Percentage of the Vote, House
Elections, 1994 and 1996
- Congressional Elections -- Voters, Candidates, and Issues
Figure 4-2 (Erikson and Wright) - Partisanship and Seat Shares - Note
that they roughly track but we need to factor in turnout.
Democratic Seats and Vote Share, 1946 - 2002
Figure 4-3 (Erikson and Wright) - Spending Preferences from NPAT surveys: 2002 and 1998
Spending Preferences for Democratic
and Republican Congressional Candidates, 1998 and 2002
Figure 4-4 (Erikson and Wright) - Issue differences by party.
Note how all these spending and issue positions are correlated.
Party Differences Among House
Candidates on Selected Issues, 1998 and 2002
Figure 4-5 (Erikson and Wright) - Distribution of Candidate Ideology
by Party, 2002 and 1998.
Party Candidate Ideological Differences, 1998 and 2002
With Respect to Figure 4-4 and 4-5 (Erikson and Wright), recall the discussion of
The Basic Space and The Mapping of Issues
The Basic Space and Issue Mappings
Figure 4-6 (Erikson and Wright) - Incumbency advantage - horizontal axis
1996 Clinton (2000 Gore) Vote, vertical axis 1998 (2002) House Vote
The Incumbency Advantage in the
House, 1998 and 2002
(Recall) Incumbency Advantage: Sophomore Surge and Retirement Slump
The Incumbency Advantage in the
House, 1846 - 2000
Table 4-1 (Erikson and Wright) - Quality of Challengers 2002 and 1998
Incumbents Facing Quality Challengers
in the 1998 and 2002 House Elections
Figure 4-7 (Erikson and Wright) - Ideology by Presidential Vote - Note that
this has both candidates from NPAT
Republican and Democratic 1998 (2002)
Candidate Ideology by District Presidential Vote in 1996 (2000)
Figure 4-8 (Erikson and Wright) - Ideology and the House Vote - Note that
the "M"s should be clustered around 50% Clinton Vote
Ideology and the House Vote, 1998 and 2002
Figure 4-9 (Erikson and Wright) - Note "S" Shape. These are winners regardless
of party
Winner's Ideology by District
Presidential Vote, 2002 and 1998
Table 4-3 (Erikson and Wright) - How Voters Perceive the Candidates
Voter's Perceptions of the
Ideology of their Representative: 1978 - 2002
- Voter Choices
Table 5.2 (Stewart) - Probability of Voting as a Function of House Candidate Evaluations
Table 5.2 -- Probability of Voting as a Function of House Candidate Evaluations, 1994
Table 5.4 (Stewart) - Party and Ideological Distance as Explanatory Factors in House Elections
Party and Ideological Distance as Factors in House Elections in 1994
Table 5.5 (Stewart) - Ideological Extremity of Voters in 1994, by Interest in Politics
Ideological Extremity and Interest in Politics
Figure 5.6 (Stewart) - Richard Fenno's Concept of Nested Constituencies
The Nested Constituencies of a Member of Congress
- Progressive Ambition
State and Federal Hierarchy of Offices
State Hierarchy: Governor > State Legislator > Local Official
Federal Hierarchy: President > Senator > Representative
Table 4.1 (Stewart) - MA Example of Progressive Ambition
Prior Careers of the MA Delegation to the
House, 91st Congress (1969-71)
Table 4.4 (Stewart) - Low and High Quality challengers
Success of High and Low Quality Challengers
in 1994
- Campaign Spending
Campaign Spending By Winning House Candidates
Campaign Spending by Winning House Candidates: 1976 - 2004
Campaign Spending By Winning Senate Candidates
Campaign Spending by Winning Senate Candidates: 1976 - 2004
The Cost to Defeat a House Incumbent, 1984 - 2000
House Challengers Who Beat Incumbents
Spending on House and Senate Campaigns: 1982 - 2002 (Real Dollars)
Total Spending on House and Senate Campaigns
Soft Money Receipts by Party: 1992 - 2002 (Real Dollars)
Soft Money in Real Dollars
Gini Coefficient for Individual Campaign Contributions: 1980 - 2002
Unequal Giving to Congressional Campaigns
PAC Contributions by Ideology, 2002. L = Labor, C = Corporate, T = Trade, N = Unconnected,
U = Unknown, V = Cooperative, W = Corporation Without Stock
PAC Contributions by Ideology
Recent Origins of the Current Mess: Buckley vs. Valeo, 1976
Bukley vs Valeo -- What the Supreme Court Did
McCain-Feingold -- Contribution Limits
Contribution Limits under McCain-Feingold
McCain-Feingold -- Spending Limits
Spending Limits under McCain-Feingold
McCain-Feingold -- Impact on Open-Seat Candidate Receipts
Open-Seat Receipts
McCain-Feingold -- Impact on Democrat/Republican Candidate Receipts
Democrat and Republican Candidate Receipts
McCain-Feingold -- Impact on Individual Contributions to House Candidates
Individual Contributions to House Candidates
McCain-Feingold -- Impact on Party Fund Raising
Party Fund Raising
Figure 6.9 (Stewart) -- Why Incumbents Love the System (even after McCain-Feingold)
Spending Advanage of Incumbents
- The Importance of Voting Rules
The Choice of Voting Scheme Can Change the Outcome
Voting in the Roman Senate
The Voting Order Can Change the Outcome
The Paradox of Voting (Condorcet Paradox)
Whether or Not Voters vote in Accord with their True Preferences Can Change
the Outcome (Sophisticated vs. Sincere Voting)
The Powell Amendment
Controlling the Agenda Can Change the Outcome
Richard McKelvey's "Chaos" Theorem
Gerry Mackie: None of these are Serious Problems in the Real World
- How a Bill Becomes a Law
Overview of the Process
Inside the Sausage Factory -- How a Bill Becomes a Law
Figure 9.1 (Stewart) - Number of Bills Introduced
Bills Introduced in and Passed by Congress,
1947 - 1988
Table 9.1 (Stewart) -- Hurdles in the Process
Legislative Hurdles
Table 9.2 (Stewart) -- Rules Committee: Open, Closed, and Special Rules
Special Rules in the House
Table 9.3 (Stewart) -- Daily Order of Business
Daily Order of Business in the House and
Senate, 106th House
Figure 9.5 (Stewart) -- The Full House Floor Voting Tree
Two Views of the House Amendment Tree
- The Committee System
House and Senate Committees in the 107th Congress.
Note the sizes of the House Committees and
how Subcommittees "chop up" the jurisdictions. The Party Ratios on the
Committees are very close to the overall party ratio of the House. The
Senate Committee system roughly parallels the House albeit with much
closer party ratios.
The Committee System in the 109th
Congress
Table 8.1 (Stewart) -- The Types of Congressional Committees
A Morphology of Congressional Committees
Table 8.2 (Stewart) - Jurisdictions of the Ways & Means and Senate Finance
Committees (Remember the Constitution!)
Jurisdiction of the House Ways and Means
Committee and Senate Finance Committee in the 106th Congress
Figure 8.1 (Stewart) -- History of Committees - The Number of Committees Over
Time - Note the slow rise of Standing Committees into the 20th Century. This
corresponds to the growth of Industrial Capitalism
The Number of Committees in the House and
Senate, 1789 - 1998
Figure 8.2 (Stewart) - Party Ratios over time on the Taxing Committees - Unless
the majority party has a super-large majority, it has a bigger majority on
the taxing committees - that is a measure of How Important they are.
Percentage of Seats Held by the Majority Party
on House and Senate Taxing Committees
Table 8.7 (Stewart) - Committee Rankings based upon transfer patterns.
The Pecking Order - The Prestige Hierarchy!
Relative Attractiveness Ranking of House and
Senate Committees, 81st to 102nd Congresses
- Pivots and Gridlock Intervals
Example of Veto Pivot, Filibuster Pivot, and Gridlock Interval